Bene Factum

2012/04/19

Fun with probability – Part II

Filed under: Gaming Blog — Tags: , , , — AlexWeldon @ 2:45 am

Yesterday, I posted about a little thought experiment game I’d come up with to look into risk-reward decisions in multiplayer games.

In the game, each player in turn picks a number, from 1 up to the highest number on whatever die is being used. Then everyone rolls, trying to get their number or higher. Out of those who succeeded, the one who picked the highest number (i.e. who took the biggest risk) wins. If everyone fails, they all reroll until at least one person succeeds.

It’s easy enough to work out some basic results for the two-player version on paper. Yesterday, I posed six questions of increasing difficulty to be answered, whether mathematically or simple guesswork. Here they are again, now with the answers.
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2012/04/17

Fun with probability – part I

Filed under: Gaming Blog — Tags: , , , — AlexWeldon @ 7:40 pm

A friend of mine just posted on my Facebook wall, linking to this YouTube video about “Grime Dice,” a set of five dice with numbered faces chosen to have some interesting non-transitive properties; the first is that each of the dice will statistically beat two of the other dice, forming two “A beats B beats C beats D beats E beats A” loops, like Rock-Paper-Scissors-Lizard-Spock. The second, more remarkable property, is that if you roll two dice at a time instead of one, and add the totals, one of these loops remains unchanged, while the other reverses in order (so that E beats D beats C beats B beats A beats E).

After writing my last post, about how risk-reward decisions are affected by a game in which the goal is achieving an all-time high score, I got to thinking about more general cases of risk-reward decision-making in games, and how that is, like these Grime dice, a non-transitive thing. If you have the opportunity to see what kinds of risks your opponents are taking, you’re usually going to want to gamble either just a little bit bigger, so as to come out slightly ahead if you both succeed, or – if you feel your opponent’s strategy is too high-risk, play as safely as possible and count on them failing.

Having been reminded of this by the Grime dice, I decided to invent an extremely minimalist dice game to take a closer look at this idea in the abstract.
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2012/04/13

8×10 Barred Grid Cryptic #1

Filed under: Pencil Puzzles — Tags: , , — AlexWeldon @ 8:47 pm

This is another old cryptic of mine. A couple of the clues weren’t quite to my liking anymore, so I redid them, but there were some pretty good ones that didn’t need changing! Some of the clues are harder than others, but the grid is so open that any word you have trouble with should solve itself by checked letters eventually.

Download: (PDF) (JPG)
Solutions: (PDF) (RTF)

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